A top 10 global pharmaceutical product was slated to launch a new product into a complex, multibillion dollar environment including fluid launch and competitor launch dates and competition that included branded, generic, mono- and combo-therapies.
How would market access affect the five year forecast? Which payers held outsized influence in picking winners and losers among the competition?
How could the client alter patient and payer behavior and at what impact on gross to net calculations?
ISA executed a data-driven, multifaceted engagement to develop a robust predictive model for forecasting, market access impact and patient assistance quantification. We onboarded and utilized data that the client licensed including:
- Longitudinal patient data
- Pharmacy claims data
- Sales volume data
- Historical formulary and payer enrollment data
Our work entailed integrating more than a terabyte of data and carrying out advanced analytics to create a market simulator with five major components:
- Total market forecast
- Predictive share and market access impact model
- Uptake trajectories and launch timing
- Baseline formulary scenarios for product and competitors
- Patient assistance program and impact of product cost on patient behavior
The final simulator allowed for user control of formulary changes and payer-specific impact analysis, changes to competitor and product launches, patient assistance and other market dynamics. A bottom-up forecast provided gross to net expectations and the launch timeframe highlighted upcoming payer coverage decisions and recent changes.
Real World Outcome
In addition to providing a market simulator designed for ease of use in forecasting, market access and account direction, the findings enabled a go-to-market strategy designed to optimize patient access while engaging with key payers at the appropriate time.